On to Week 3 we go. The New Orleans Saints sit at a disappointing 0-2, coming off of their sixth straight home loss, as they prepare to travel to Carolina to face the 2-0 Panthers. Unfortunately Drew Brees has been officially ruled out for the game, so we’ll get to the offensive preview tomorrow. Let’s jump right in with the defensive preview of this divisional week 3 matchup.

Saints Defense vs. Panthers Offense

Saints Team Defense

• Total defense: 380.0 yards allowed per game (25th in NFL)
• Scoring defense: 28.5 points per game (27th)
• Pass defense: 250.5 yards per game (T-18th)
• Rush defense: 129.5 yards per game (24th)

Panthers  Team Offense

• Total offense: 306.5 yards per game (27th)
• Scoring offense: 22.0 points per game (T-19th)
• Pass offense: 168.0 yards per game (31st)
• Rush offense: 138.5 yards per game (7th)

The Saints defense has been very up and down to start the year. Their play was spotty throughout the Week 1 match-up with the Arizona Cardinals, then it was a tale of two halves against Tampa Bay. In the first half, along with the first drive of the third quarter, New Orleans really struggled to put pressure on Jameis Winston and stop the run. After that, they locked the Buccaneers down, holding them to three field goals, a few of which were set up off of offensive turnovers. They’ve struggled to get a consistent pass rush with their front four, forcing Rob Ryan to send blitzes to get anything going. The secondary has played very aggressive, but they have drawn quite a few penalties. There has been some promise, but consistency has been the main issue.

Being known as a defensive team, the Panthers offense is not asked to do a whole lot. They are at their best when running the ball effectively, controlling the clock, and letting their defense shut down opposing offenses. Through two games, they’ve done pretty much just that. As you can see from the stats, the offense is not lighting it up, but that’s just fine when your defense plays as well as Carolina’s. They’ve faced the Jacksonville Jaguars and the Houston Texans, teams with relatively weak quarterback play. Without much of a passing threat, Carolina will surely try and follow up what Doug Martin and the Buccaneers did to New Orleans in the first half of last week’s game and run the ball a lot. The question is, which Saints defense will show up?

Pass Defense

As it has been for the defense as a whole, the pass rush and coverage has been up and down. On one drive, the Saints will struggle to get anywhere near the quarterback, then get called for a penalty in coverage on the back end. On the next drive, they will be all over the quarterback and the secondary will knock down a few balls. Basically, it’s tough to know what to expect. To be fair, the secondary has been playing very short-handed. Jairus Byrd and Keenan Lewis have yet to see the field, while Rafael Bush tore his pectoral muscle during the first game of the season and is out for the year. Even outside linebacker Dannell Ellerbe’s absence has been very impactful, seeing as he’s typically pretty good in coverage from his position. Rookie cornerback Damian Swann has probably been the biggest surprise thus far, making the most of his playing time due to the injuries. He’s had his lapses, but he has generally been in great position in coverage, showing a lot of promise for a team that needs all of the secondary help it can get. Rookie Hau’oli Kikaha has not been all over the quarterbacks just yet, but when he does get near the play, he comes up big. He has a sack and two forced fumbles already. Cam Jordan and Kasim Edebali are both coming of off solid games, in which they both recorded a sack and fumble recovery.

There’s really not a whole lot to say about the Panthers passing offense, due to it being pretty much non-existent. Cam Newton is averaging 185 yards passing per game, while completing just 52.9% of his passes. Ted Ginn Jr. is the team’s leading receiver with 6 receptions for 95 yards and a touchdown in the first two games, while veteran tight end Greg Olsen has added in just 7 receptions for 81 yards. Carolina is hoping that rookie receiver Devin Funchess can step up to fill in for Benjamin’s role, considering he’s nearly the exact same size at around 6’5″ and 240 pounds, but he’s only been able to manage two catches thus far. As if their already weak receiving core could afford any more losses, Jericho Cotchery suffered an ankle injury last week and will be sidelined for about a month.

The bottom line is that the Panthers are not going to come out throwing a lot on Sunday, so the Saints can’t afford to give up big plays when they do. If you know anything about Newton, it’s that he’s not the most accurate quarterback in the league. Relying mostly on his legs, he tends to miss receivers even with tons of time to throw. New Orleans has had their most success against him when forcing him to throw on the run. Sacks are great, but this is one time where simple pressure to make him move around would probably be good enough. I’m interested to see what Kikaha can do in this one, because Newton is not a quarterback that you can get too careless with by rushing too far up the field and breaking contain. If you do that against him, he’ll scramble and kill you with his legs. With no serious threats to be scared of through the air, the Saints simply have to win this facet of the game to have a chance.

Rush Defense

The Saints’ defended the run very poorly for their first six quarters, then played pretty well for most of the second half on Sunday. It was the run defense that gave the Saints any chance of making a comeback last week, because when Tampa Bay attempted to run the ball and chew clock in the third and primarily the fourth quarter, the run defense did their job and got the ball back to the offense. I’ve already mentioned Kikaha’s presence in the pass rush, but he actually leads the team with 12 tackles, showing he’s capable of playing the run too. Kenny Vaccaro and Stephone Anthony have been and will continue to be big defenders of the run, as they both have 11 tackles through the first two contests. I also mentioned how Dannell Ellerbe will be a big help in pass coverage once healthy, but he will also be a big upgrade over David Hawthorne against the run. Hawthorne has been a very productive player in his past few years in New Orleans, but the cracks are really starting to show with plenty of missed tackles.

Run, run, run. That’s the bread and butter for the Carolina Panthers. Whether it’s Jonathan Stewart, Mike Tolbert, or Cam Newton, this team loves to pound the ball and wear defenses out. Stewart has 118 yards through the first two games, while averaging 3.4 yards per carry. Newton has added in 111 yards and is averaging 4.6 yards per carry.

I fully expect the Panthers to come out and try to pound the ball against the Saints like the Buccaneers did in the first half of last week’s game. I can almost guarantee you that head coach Ron Rivera is pushing the team to get off to a quick start and take the lead early. If they can do that, not only will they be able to do what they do best by running the ball and controlling the clock, but they’ll also make the Saints one dimensional, forcing Luke McCown to throw the ball to catch up. The Saints defense will need to come out strong early on and allow their offense to stick with their game-plan, which will likely have it’s fair share of running the ball, much like the Panthers.

Players to Watch

Hau’oli Kikaha: I’ve touched a good bit on him, but I just want to again point out how interested I am to see how he plays against a team like this. He’s a pass-rush specialist, but he’s shown that he can be an effective player against the run, as well. I’m also interested to see if he can contain (or even slow down) Cam Newton. I believe he could be one of the biggest impact players for this defense if they do what they need to do to win.

Stephone Anthony: Unlike Kikaha, run defense is what Anthony does best. He’s shown flashes so far, but this is the perfect opportunity to break out and get all over the field against a team that’s going to try and tire the Saints defense with the ground attack.

Prediction

Assuming the Saints defense can build upon their play from the second half of last week’s game, I do believe they have a chance in this one. But not a big one. I believe the Panthers defense is too good to go up against while being predictable, and that’s exactly what the New Orleans offense has become. I have a feeling that the defense is going to get stuck on the field a lot during this game and they’ll simply get more and more tired as it goes on.

Prediction: Panthers – 24  Saints – 13

Still, as always, Who Dat?!