I hoped that my decision to wait as long as possible to put the offensive preview together to find more out about Drew Brees would end up being unnecessary, but it turns out that my cautiousness was unfortunately warranted. As I’m sure you know by now, Sean Payton announced Friday afternoon that Brees would be out for Sunday’s match-up against the Carolina Panthers. Sunday will mark the first time in his career with the Saints that he misses a game due to injury. I’d say that’s a pretty remarkable run within 10 years. Luke McCown will start for the New Orleans Saints and look to do his best to replicate as much of the production that Payton’s offense is typically capable of. With that being said, it’s nearly impossible to accurately predict what will happen with McCown at the helm. I’m still going to give you the team’s overall averages and ranks, but make note that they should be taken with a grain of salt in reference to what we may see on the field against Carolina. Let’s get started.

Saints Offense vs. Panthers Defense

Saints Team Offense

• Total offense: 365.5 yards per game (9th in NFL)
• Scoring offense: 19.0 points per game (T-23rd)
• Pass offense: 286.5 yards per game (6th)
• Rush offense: 79.0 yards per game (25th)

Panthers Team Defense

• Total defense: 282.5 yards allowed per game (5th in NFL)
• Scoring defense: 13.0 points per game (2nd)
• Pass defense: 204.0 yards per game (8th)
• Rush defense: 78.5 yards per game (7th)

It’s been a slow start for the New Orleans Saints offense, to say the least. In Week 1, it was a poor game plan and poor play calling. Then last week was thrown off on just the second offensive drive of the game when Drew Brees was hit in the shoulder and injured, struggling to make throws for the rest of the game. Most assume that Sean Payton is going to strongly lean on the running game and make McCown a game manager and that’s very possible, but I wouldn’t immediately assume that he’s going to refrain from letting him air it out at times. I’ll touch more on that in a little bit, but the bottom line is that regardless of what we’ve seen so far, anyone’s guess is as good as mine as to how this offense plans to attack the Panthers on Sunday.

Top ten in every major statistical category is about right for what we’ve come to expect from a Carolina Panther defense. What’s impressive about their numbers is that they’ve come mostly without star middle linebacker Luke Kuechly, who’s battled a concussion sustained in the season opener. Kuechly is likely to miss yet another game, as he’s listed as doubtful. A doubtful status usually means that there is a 25% chance of the player playing, but a doubtful status coming off of concussion lowers those chances drastically. No Kuechly is good news for the Saints, but this defense is still very talented in all other areas.

Pass Offense

In his twelve year career in the NFL, McCown has started just nine games.  He’s 2-7 in those nine starts and has only thrown for over 300 yards once. Does that instance ring a bell? It came in 2007 when he was with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, when he threw for 313 yards against the Saints, including the game winning touchdown with seventeen seconds left on the clock. He led the Buccaneers on that game winning touchdown drive after Devery Henderson could not control a bad pitch from Reggie Bush on a double reverse while trying to run out the clock, a play call that will forever be one of the worst of Sean Payton’s career. McCown took advantage of it and to this day, that’s his one shining moment in the NFL. With this being his first start since 2011, he’ll try to make due with the likes of Brandin Cooks, Marques Colston, Brandon Coleman, and Willie Snead. His preseasons in New Orleans have typically been up and down. He’ll throw a few terrible passes that make you scratch your head and wonder how he’s still in the league, then he’ll take the team and march them right down the field in a two-minute drive like a wily veteran. I suppose only time will tell which side we’ll see as he steps on the field for the first time in a meaningful situation in black and gold. He’ll go up against a Panther defense who’s shown that they are capable of putting pressure on the quarterback and making plays on the ball. Defensive end Mario Addison leads the team with two sacks, while cornerbacks Josh Norman and Charles Tillman attempt to lock down the outside. Norman has gotten off to a hot start, having intercepted one pass and batted down four balls.

Rush Offense

After an off-season of making every move they could to try and bulk up the rushing attack, it’s been a disappointing start. I had high hopes for Mark Ingram and while I’m not ready to abandon them after two games, I don’t know that any success he has will be as easy as I first believed. He caught flack last week because he could not get anything going, then Khiry Robinson came in during the third quarter and had big success. Robinson certainly showed more burst, but the offensive linemen greatly picked up their play after halftime as far as run blocking goes. Now with Brees out, those two are going to be relied upon even more. The offensive line faces a big challenge, because you can bet that Carolina knows that Sean Payton will be forced to put a lot of faith in the rushing attack, which makes them one dimensional before the game even begins. McCown will likely have to get in a rhythm early on to keep the Panthers defense honest. With Luke Kuechly all but set to miss the game, the Saints are catching a much needed break. Safeties Roman Harper and Kurt Coleman are both big defenders against the run, so look for them to be active.

Prediction

I had low expectations for this game before we even knew that Brees would be out and now they’re even lower. The Carolina Panthers are not a defense you want to be going up against with your backup quarterback making his first start in four years. Stranger things have happened, but it’s hard to have confidence that this team can stay that competitive in this situation. I see the offense having a tough time moving the ball, leaving the defense on the field for most of the game.

Prediction: Panthers – 30  Saints – 10

Here’s to hoping I’m wrong! Who Dat?!