Today I’m going to give you some bold predictions on what I think could happen for the New Orleans Saints 2015 season. In years past, I’ve given both bold and not-so-bold predictions. The not-so-bold calls were just that — calls that were pretty obvious, without having to go out on the ledge much, especially compared to the bold predictions. This year, bold is the only way to go. Why, you ask? Well, because coming off of a season as disappointing as 2014, and an off-season filled with roster turnover, we head into the 2015 season with lots of new faces, nothing that will happen is obvious. Sure, we can assume that Drew Brees is going to throw a lot of touchdowns and Mark Ingram is going to get a lot of carries, but you don’t need me to tell you those things. Instead, I’m going to go a little deeper with some numbers and go out on a limb with what I believe could happen. Before I get started, let me give you all a quick disclaimer. By no means do I expect most or all of these to come true. There’s just way too much unpredictability in this league. The key in reading this article is hoping that at least half of these things happen, which could make for a great season for the Saints. With that out of the way, lets get started!

2015 Offensive Bold Predictions

Drew Brees throws for 12 interceptions or less.

My thinking: Brees has done that three times in his career in New Orleans. Those three times were: 2006 (11 INTs), 2009  (11 INTs), and 2013 (12 INTs). His next lowest total with the Saints was in 2011, when he threw 14 interceptions. Any Saints fan can probably look at those four years and immediately realize that they have one thing in common. Those four years were the most successful seasons since Brees took over under center in 2006. They lost in the Divisional Round of the playoffs twice (’11 and ’13), lost in the NFC Championship game (’06), and won the Super Bowl (’09). Now, I’m sure you’re thinking, “Well that’s obvious. They’re best when they don’t turn the ball over.” That’s not it, though. The three seasons that the Saints have run the ball most under Coach Sean Payton were 2006, 2009, and 2011. In those three seasons, New Orleans averaged 457 rushing attempts per year. How much did they run the ball in the other six seasons, you ask? Just an average of 390 times a year. That’s a huge difference. The correlation between all of those numbers and this upcoming season is simple. Every move the Saints made in the off-season indicated that they want to throw less and run more. They traded Brees’ #1 target to get a former All-Pro at center, they traded a young, talented receiver, and they used the 13th overall pick to select an offensive tackle, despite having two starters in place. Oh yeah, they also locked down their bell-cow running back with a four year, $16 million contract. Sean Payton would not have done any of those things if not for the simple fact that they want to run the ball, control the clock, and help their defense. When his teams do that, Brees throws fewer interceptions. Plain and simple.

Mark Ingram runs for 1,200 yards, catches 40 passes, and scores 12 touchdowns.

My thinking: Ingram proved last year that he deserves to be the primary ball carrier when he ran for 964 yards and averaged 4.3 yards per carry in just 13 games. New Orleans recognized that with his new contract, bringing him back for four more years. The Saints under Sean Payton have always been a team that finds hidden gems at running back who can produce very well in their offense. Pierre Thomas, Chris Ivory, and Khiry Robinson are the top three that come to mind. That’s why it was surprising to see them trade into the end of the first round in the 2011 NFL Draft to select Ingram. It took him a little while to get going, but he finally did and they doubled down on that decision by locking him down with his new deal, while also letting go of fan-favorite Pierre Thomas. Combine all of that with everything I mentioned regarding Drew Brees throwing fewing interceptions and you have a recipe for a big season out of Ingram.

Brandin Cooks has 90 catches, 1,200 yards, and scores 10+ total touchdowns.

My thinking: Despite the fact that the Saints will attack with the running game a lot more this season, Cooks is the biggest threat in this offense. With Jimmy Graham gone, he will now be Brees’ favorite target and it already showed through training camp and the preseason. Brees only played four offensive series of preseason action, but it was the three that he played in the second game against New England that showed what these two can do together. Cooks caught three passes for 81 yards, including a 45 yard deep touchdown reception that was as pretty as they get. That game was a great indicator of what we may see throughout this year.

Ben Watson has 50 receptions, 500 yards, and he and Josh Hill combine for 10 touchdown receptions.

My thinking: You can’t downplay the loss of Jimmy Graham, but Watson did a great job through training camp of filling in for Graham’s old role. He’s in great shape and many believe that he is primed for the best season of his career. He’s a better run blocker than Josh Hill, so he will likely see more snaps on a consistent basis. Sean Payton even lined him up split out like a wide receiver in four receiver sets this preseason. Hill has already proven that he is a threat in the red-zone, so I believe that’s where he’ll see a good bit of his time. Between the two, 10 touchdown passes seems very possible.

2015 Defensive Bold Predictions

Hau’oli Kikaha records 10+ sacks as a rookie.

My thinking: Coming out of Washington, Kikaha is a master pass-rusher. He led the NCAA with 19.0 sacks in just 14 games in 2014. For comparison, Justin Houston had 22.0 sacks last year, which was just .5 away from Michael Strahan’s single season record. The kid has a knack for getting to the quarterback and it shouldn’t take him long to translate that talent to the NFL.

Stephone Anthony comfortably leads the team in tackles.

My thinking: Putting more faith in another rookie, I believe Anthony has the ability to easily lead this team in tackles by a decent margin. When I say decent margin, I’m thinking around 20-30 total tackles. In his last two seasons at Clemson, he averaged 80 tackles per year, playing in 13 games each season. He was all over the ball during the preseason and many believe he was one of the sneakiest picks of the draft at the end of round one.

Jairus Byrd plays in 14 games and comes up with at least 5 interceptions.

My thinking: This is probably the biggest stretch of any of my predictions, considering Byrd hasn’t even put on a helmet in months. But, despite all of the question marks throughout training camp, reports are that he’s progressing very rapidly and is very close to seeing the field. He won’t play on Sunday and I’m hesitant to believe that he’s back for Week 2, so that’s why I say 14 games. Yes, he struggled in his first four games of 2014, but he was coming off of back surgery in the off-season and it was his first year in a new defense. The bottom line is that when he’s healthy, he has the chance to be the best ball-hawking free safety in the NFL. I’m trusting the reports of his improving health here and saying that if he’s on the field, he’ll produce.

Delvin Breaux leads all cornerbacks in interceptions.

My thinking: This, too, is a bit of a stretch for two reasons. First, he’s a rookie and will be taking the NFL field for the first time. Second, when everyone is healthy, he’s the nickel cornerback. We already know that Keenan Lewis will miss the first few games to start the year and Brandon Browner has already been banged up, despite being ready to go for Sunday. Breaux is an incredible talent who has already proven to have more perseverance than most of us could only dream to have, coming back from a broken neck in high school to make an NFL roster. He didn’t just make the team, though, he’s going to see the field a lot. I believe he comes out and proves why his hometown team was smart enough to take a chance on him and his name quickly permeates throughout the entire NFL as one of the best comeback stories you’ll ever hear.

 

That’ll do it for this one, folks. What do you think? Feel free to let me know how right or wrong you think I am in the comments!

Keep an eye out as we now start looking to the immediate future, specifically Sunday’s matchup against the Arizona Cardinals. I’ll have the offensive and defensive preview for you tomorrow to get you ready for what to expect this weekend. Thanks for stopping by and I’ll see you soon.

As always, Who Dat?!